Geopolitical Risk Index

What the index measures

Each month, the share of articles in ten newspapers that discuss adverse geopolitical events and the risk of them: war, military build-ups, nuclear threats and terrorism. The papers are the Chicago Tribune, the Daily Telegraph, the Financial Times, the Globe and Mail, the Guardian, the Los Angeles Times, the New York Times, USA Today, the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post. The share is scaled so that its 1985–2019 average is 100.

The searches fall into eight groups. Five describe threats (of war, to peace, military build-ups, nuclear threats, terror threats) and make up the Threats sub-index. Three describe events (the start of a war, its escalation, terrorist acts) and make up Acts.

The authors find that higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment, stock prices and employment, and a higher chance of economic disaster.

What it does not measure

It measures attention, not danger. All ten newspapers are American, British or Canadian, so the index reads the world as that press covers it: a war those papers ignore barely moves it. The newest month is preliminary and is revised. The numbered events are Valtor's annotations, not part of the authors' index.

Source and licence

Data: Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello, Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index, downloaded 14 Oct 2026. Published under a Creative Commons BY 4.0 licence; the charts and notes on this page are Valtor's and are not endorsed by the authors.

Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), “Measuring Geopolitical Risk,” American Economic Review, 112(4), pp. 1194–1225.