Reports
Where a question needs more than a week's work. Each report states its method before its findings, and publishes the data behind them.
Bab el-Mandeb from mid-channel, with Yemen on the horizon. Richard Weil, CC0.
.jpg){kind=link}
Forthcoming, October 2026Taiwan Strait
Priced or Ignored? How Taiwan's Markets React to PLA Exercises
An event study of Taiwan's country-risk assets around every named PLA exercise since August 2022, and whether any reaction has faded.
Get it by email
New analysis and notes, at most once a week. The address is used for nothing else, and one reply takes you off the list. Privacy notice.