Valtor Partners measures it. Independent research on conflict and markets, written so that every number can be checked against where it came from.
Tankers load at Iraq's Al Basra Oil Terminal in the northern Gulf, September 2004. U.S. Navy, PH2 Samuel W. Shavers, Public domain.
Not a news service. Each piece picks the story that is being underread and says what it is worth.
The EIA's physical Brent price has stayed $20 to $26 above December futures since 5 October, after the gap doubled in a day. JPMorgan puts the cost of shipping a Gulf cargo to China at $35 a barrel, from $3 in January.
4 sourced figures
Crude volumes are near pre-war levels and futures sit near $106. Iran's attacks are being priced elsewhere: in record tanker rates, in discounts on Gulf crude and in ships that turn back before Fujairah.
5 sourced figures
The emergency release announced on 2 October is the undelivered part of the IEA's spring action, and much of it sits in Europe. The shortage it now has to fill is diesel, and Washington used the threat of an export ban to get it.
7 sourced figures
In the first fortnight of open fighting the missiles went to Saudi airports and oil sites, and the battle went to the Bab el-Mandeb coast. Container rates kept falling and the return to Suez grew.
5 sourced figures
Russia shipped 0.3 million tons of grain through the Black Sea and Azov in September, against 4.74 million a year earlier. Shipping attacks more than quadrupled. Chicago wheat has still fallen about 22% from its 28 August high.
4 sourced figures
The US commander says the main routes are free of mines. JMIC counted 101 escorted transits in three days and kept the threat level at SEVERE. Brent sits near a six-month high.
4 sourced figures
Morgan Stanley put Middle East crude exports at around 17 million barrels a day last week. Brent still rose, after Houthi strikes reached eastern Saudi Arabia.
4 sourced figures
Total US crude inventories dropped to 695.2 million barrels, their lowest in 43 years. Commercial stocks drew 3.1 million barrels, the SPR fell again, and exports dropped 1.13 million barrels a day.
4 sourced figures
One index of the world's news, one of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Both are rebuilt from their source data, and every figure on their pages is computed, not typed.
Caldara and Iacoviello's measure of war and terrorism in the news, monthly since 1990. The 1985–2019 average is 100.
146.2
September 2026, higher than 88% of months since January 1990.
Valtor's own index, built from the headlines of China's and Taiwan's national news agencies since 2015. The 2015–2024 average is 100.
152.9
September 2026, both sides, down from 161.3 in August 2026.
A figure here comes with what it measures, when it was true and where it came from. One that cannot be found is marked as missing, never estimated. Fact, inference and speculation are written as three different claims.
Brent spot, physical (EIA)
What it measures
$126.55/bbl ($114.82 on 1 Oct, $135.51 on 2 Oct)
As of
When it was true
Source: EIA via FRED
Where it came from
Report forthcoming, October 2026
An event study of Taiwan's country-risk assets around every named PLA exercise since August 2022, and whether any reaction has faded.
Each conflict has its own page: what is happening, a dated timeline, and every piece filed under it.
5 pieces
6 pieces
14 pieces
3 pieces
New analysis and notes, at most once a week. The address is used for nothing else, and one reply takes you off the list. Privacy notice.
A question about a piece or its method, or a number that looks wrong. Corrections are published when they change a finding.
Container terminal, Port of Hamburg, at night. mybroetchen, CC BY 2.0.
