Red Sea and the Saudi–Houthi war

Suez container-ship capacity, first two weeks of October 753k TEU a week (1,457k in 2023) 14 October 2026. BIMCO, from Clarksons Research Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are at war along Yemen’s Red Sea coast. On 4 October Yemen’s government, backed by Saudi air strikes, launched an offensive to retake the coast. On 10 October a Houthi missile killed 13 people at Riyadh airport, by Reuters’ count. Shipping keeps coming back: container-ship capacity through the Suez Canal averaged 753k TEU (twenty-foot containers) a week in the first two weeks of October, against 1,457k TEU in the same weeks of 2023, BIMCO reported.

The Houthis, who have held Yemen’s capital Sanaa since 2014, seized the cargo ship Galaxy Leader in November 2023 and went on to attack ships they linked to Israel. By December Maersk had suspended passage through Bab el-Mandeb, the strait at the Red Sea’s southern end. The campaign killed at least nine mariners and sank four ships, Al Jazeera counted in November 2025, when the Houthis indicated they had stopped after the Gaza ceasefire. The Iran war, which began on 28 February 2026, made the strait a more vital route for Saudi energy, Reuters reported. On 20 July the Houthis declared an embargo on Saudi shipping, citing what they called a Saudi blockade of Yemen; Riyadh denies besieging Yemen. In September they took the coast down to Perim Island, in the strait itself.

War cover, Saudi-linked tanker at Yanbu About 3% of value 25 September 2026. Reuters, via Insurance Journal War cover, non-Saudi tanker, Red Sea 0.2–0.3% of value 25 September 2026. Reuters, via Insurance Journal Saudi-linked tankers through Bab el-Mandeb One since 20 July 18 September 2026. Lloyd's List Intelligence Suez Canal transits, September (cargo ships over 10,000 tonnes deadweight) 1,228, up 21% y/y 30 September 2026. Lloyd's List Intelligence Drewry container index, Shanghai–Rotterdam $3,522/40ft, up 6% w/w 15 October 2026. Drewry Insurers have priced the Houthis’ target list. On 25 September Reuters’ sources put war cover for a Saudi-linked tanker calling at Yanbu at about 3% of value, against 0.2–0.3% of value for a Red Sea tanker with no Saudi connection. We have found no later quote. Since 20 July only one Saudi-linked tanker has crossed Bab el-Mandeb, Lloyd’s List Intelligence counted in September. Container lines took the list as permission to return, and ships of the owners the Houthis once threatened mostly cross with their transponders off. Suez Canal transits reached 1,228 in September, up 21% on a year earlier, by Lloyd’s List Intelligence’s count. Asia–Europe rates fell for 13 weeks, then turned: on 15 October Drewry’s Shanghai–Rotterdam rate rose 6% to $3,522 per 40ft container.

On 7 October a containership operated by China’s CU Lines was fired upon in the southern Red Sea. Nobody claimed it. The Maritime Executive reported shots from a small craft, and recalled reports that some small boats there may be fishing boats guarding their nets.

Valtor’s inference Our reading, which is an inference: the return to Suez rests on two things the market does not control. One is the Houthis keeping ships with no Saudi link off their list; the other is the government holding the coast it says it has taken. A confirmed Houthi attack on a non-Saudi ship would test the first.