Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline is full again. Its exit is still one port.

East-West pipeline throughput 5.8 mb/d (capacity 7 mb/d) 6 October 2026. Saudi energy minister, via Bloomberg (Rigzone) On 6 October Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said the kingdom “is pumping 5.8 million barrels a day” through the East-West pipeline, which has a capacity of 7 million. In September drones that Saudi officials blamed on Iraqi militias had shut the line. The pipe has come back. The coast it runs to has not changed.

Extra bypass capacity planned Up to 1.2 mb/d in seven to eight weeks; about 10 mb/d in two to three years 12 October 2026. Saudi energy minister, via Reuters (Baird Maritime) Yanbu, the terminal at the line’s Red Sea end, was shut for 17 days, The Maritime Executive reported. It resumed loading on 28 September and two days later was loading 11 tankers at once, according to Bloomberg’s Javier Blas. On 1 October the port “appears to have been hit by an unidentified projectile”. No one has claimed it. On 16 October the Saudi-led coalition said it had intercepted a ballistic missile headed for Yanbu, Reuters reported. The Houthis did not immediately claim it. On 12 October the minister said Aramco could add up to 1.2 million barrels a day of export capacity within seven to eight weeks by temporarily converting a gas pipeline, usable for oil until May, and that upgrades could lift the kingdom’s bypass capacity to around 10 million barrels a day over two to three years, Reuters reported.

Yanbu seaborne exports, 7-day average 1.72 mb/d (0.43 on 21 Sep; 4.19-4.65 Apr-Jul) 30 September 2026. Signal Group, via Hellenic Shipping News War cover, Saudi-linked tanker at Yanbu About 3% (under 1% in early July) 25 September 2026. Reuters, via Insurance Journal Throughput is not exports. Signal Group, which tracks tankers, makes the point itself: the minister’s figures “measure pipeline throughput, not seaborne exports”. Its seven-day average of Yanbu seaborne exports ran at 4.19 to 4.65 million barrels a day from April to July, fell to 0.43 million on 21 September and was back to 1.72 million on 30 September. About 1.5 million barrels a day of the line’s capacity would likely go to refineries on the west coast, Bloomberg reported on 28 September. Insurers had not cut their price by late September: Reuters put war cover for a Saudi-linked tanker at Yanbu at around 3% of the vessel’s value, against under 1% in early July.

The southern exit is contested rather than shut. Yemen’s information minister told Reuters on 5 October that government forces had secured effective control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait; the Houthis called such claims “completely untrue”. By 13 October Reuters reported that the offensive had pushed the Houthis off the area closest to the strait, though the group “remains embedded nearby”. Signal says southbound cargoes from Yanbu to India and Asia “still pass Bab el-Mandeb”. We found no count of Saudi crude through the strait for September or October. The northern route also starts at Yanbu: since the Houthis announced their blockade in July, tankers have shuttled Yanbu cargoes to Ain Sukhna in Egypt, where the oil is piped to the Mediterranean, Bloomberg reported in August.

Valtor’s inference Our reading, and it is an inference: in September the weak point was the pipe, and it was repaired in under three weeks. Now it is the terminal at the end of it and the sea lane south of it. The plans announced so far add pipe; none of the reports we read mentions a new export terminal. Aramco has told European refiners they will get all the crude they asked for in November, after telling them last month they would get none. That is a bet that Yanbu keeps loading.

What to watch

• Yanbu seaborne exports against the 5.8 million barrels a day in the pipe. A climb back toward the 4.2 to 4.7 million of April to July would mean the port is clearing what the line delivers.
• The war-risk premium at Yanbu. A fall from about 3% would mean underwriters trust the port’s defences.
• A confirmed hit on the terminal, or on a Saudi tanker south of Bab el-Mandeb.

On our reading, the pipeline is no longer the constraint. Yanbu is: a single terminal at the end of Saudi Arabia’s route around Hormuz, struck once this month, targeted again on 16 October and insured at three times its July price.