Russia's Black Sea grain shipments fell 94%. Wheat is down 22% since August.

Russian grain exports through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov in September, Russian export data seen by Reuters (Black Sea and Azov only, not all Russian exports). The percentage is our calculation. 0.3 million metric tons, against 4.74 million in September 2025; down about 94% 30 September 2026. Reuters (Tom Balmforth, Luiza Ilie), via Investing.com Russia exported just 0.3 million metric tons of grain through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov in September. A year earlier it was 4.74 million. Chicago wheat has fallen about 22% since 28 August. Al Jazeera wrote this week that the strikes “drive up food prices”. Over 12 months wheat is up. Since August it is not.

What happened

Reuters reported the Russian figure on 3 November. Ukraine suspended operations at its Black Sea ports in late July because of Russian attacks. It rerouted via Danube ports and Romanian waterways, including the Sulina Canal. Its port grain exports were 0.81 million metric tons in September, against 2.1 million a year earlier.

Merchant and other vessels hit in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov by both sides, May to October, Ambrey Analytics, against the previous half-year 317, against 74 (more than fourfold) 31 October 2026. Reuters (Tom Balmforth, Luiza Ilie), via Investing.com Ambrey Analytics counted 317 merchant and other vessels hit by the two sides from May to October, more than fourfold the 74 of the previous half-year.

On 28 October drones struck the Contship Jet Monrovia off Bulgaria. It “listed and sank”, Bulgarian authorities said. Kyiv claimed the drones were Russian. Zelenskyy said Kyiv conducted “no operations in this part of the sea”. Russia denies targeting Ukraine’s neighbours. Sofia “has not blamed Russia”, Turkiye Today reported.

The numbers

Russia’s Black Sea and Azov exports fell about 94% in September, Ukraine’s port exports about 61%. Our calculations.

Chicago wheat futures, October 2025 to October 2026, as reported by Al Jazeera From $5.03 to $6.03 per bushel; 'prices rose by a fifth' 31 October 2026. Al Jazeera (Mansur Mirovalev) Al Jazeera wrote that wheat prices rose by a fifth over 12 months, from $5.03 per bushel in October 2025 to $6.03 in October this year. On 4 November, Trading Economics showed wheat up about 8% over 12 months and down about 13% over one month. No source explains the gap between the two 12-month figures.

Wheat price change from the 28 August high to 3 November. The $7.67 high is Trading Economics's number. The 599.75 c/bu is the CBOT December close from Yahoo Finance. The percentage is our calculation. From $7.67 to 599.75 c/bu; about -22% 3 November 2026. Trading Economics; Yahoo Finance Wheat hit $7.67 on 28 August, a 3-1/2-year high, per Trading Economics. CBOT December wheat closed at 599.75 c/bu on 3 November, about 22% lower. That is our calculation, across two data series. Trading Economics names a large global harvest, bigger Australian and Argentine crops, and peace-talk hopes.

Limits: the 0.3 million covers the Black Sea and Azov only. Trading Economics says Russia increased shipments through alternative routes, including Baltic ports, with no volume given. We cannot say how much Russian grain left the market. The export data is for September, the price move runs to 3 November, and no source links the two. No source gives a current grain freight cost.

Transmission

One cost is insurance. Reuters reported on 18 September that the Joint War Committee had expanded its reporting requirements to “the whole of the Black Sea area”, and that war risk premiums were “adding hundreds of thousands of dollars in additional costs for every seven-day voyage”. We have no verified November premium.

Another is route: Ukraine via the Danube and the Sulina Canal, Russia via alternative routes. A third may be next year’s supply: Ukraine’s agriculture minister forecast an 18% decline in winter-wheat planting.

Our note of 18 October argued that the ships hit were small, not large grain carriers, and that “The wheat price will notice only when a big one is hit.” The new data tests that. September port grain volumes fell sharply, and the price fell anyway.

Valtor’s inference Our reading, which is an inference: the futures price is reading global supply and peace hopes, not the Black Sea route. The risk this leaves unpriced is next season’s Ukrainian crop, and whether peace talks happen.

What to watch

• Russia’s October grain exports through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, against September’s 0.3 million metric tons.
• Whether the trilateral talks happen. Trading Economics reported on 26 October that Putin “signalled readiness” to resume them in early November.
• CBOT December wheat against its 599.00 close on 28 October.

Less grain crossed the Black Sea in September, and wheat still got cheaper.