Russian crude is dear in India. At Russia's own ports it is still cheap.

Russian crude offered to Indian refiners More than $10/bbl above Dated Brent 8 October 2026. Bloomberg, via Rigzone Russian shipments to India, four weeks to 4 Oct 310,000 b/d, lowest since March 2022 4 October 2026. Bloomberg tanker tracking, via Rigzone Russian crude “is being offered at premiums of more than $10 a barrel to Dated Brent” to Indian refiners, people familiar with the trade told Bloomberg on 8 October. India is buying less of it. Russia’s share of India’s crude imports fell to about 35% in September from 56% in July, on Kpler’s data, and shipments averaged 310,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to 4 October, the lowest since March 2022.

That reads like the end of the Russian discount. It is not the price Russia gets at its own ports. Bloomberg does not say on what basis the premium is quoted, but Reuters has reported the same trade on a delivered basis, freight and insurance included. In August it found that Urals “delivered to India has flipped to a premium against the dated Brent benchmark for the first time since May”. In March it had Urals selling to India at a delivered premium of $4 to $5 a barrel to Brent while the discount for cargoes loading at Novorossiysk, on a free-on-board basis, was $14.

Urals average price, September $90.7/bbl, $23 (21%) below Brent; cap $44.10 30 September 2026. CREA Urals discount, western Russian ports About $25/bbl 17 September 2026. Argus, via Business FM Urals price for Russia's extraction tax, September About $86/bbl ($67 in August) 17 September 2026. Business FM At the ports, the discount held through September. Business FM, citing Argus, reported on 17 September that Urals in western ports was trading at a discount of about $25, while in Asia “discounts have turned into premiums”. CREA put September’s Urals average at $90.7 a barrel, up 32% on August and more than double the EU and UK price cap of $44.10, with a discount to Brent of $23, or 21%, “unchanged from August”. It put September’s price for Russia’s mineral extraction tax at about $86 a barrel, against $67 in August. The EIA’s physical Brent averaged $114.16 in September.

Valtor’s inference Our reading, and it is an inference: the price cap story has not flipped. It has moved down the voyage. The cap applies at the loading port. In September Urals sold for about twice the cap and $23 to $25 under Brent, on CREA’s average and Argus’s western-port quote. What Indian refiners now pay above Dated Brent is largely the cost of bringing a Baltic cargo to India in a freight market where, JPMorgan says, rates on Atlantic deliveries doubled in September. Bloomberg’s sources point the same way: Gulf barrels “benefit from shorter voyages and lower shipping costs”. More than half of Russia’s seaborne oil travels on sanctioned shadow tankers (57% in September, CREA), so part of that freight may be earned by the fleet the cap was meant to squeeze. We have no figure for how much.

What to watch

• CREA’s October analysis, due in mid-November: whether the Urals discount to Brent narrows from $23.
• Russia’s October tax price for Urals. A move toward Dated Brent would mean the port price, and not only the delivered one, has caught up.
• Indian purchases for November delivery, which Bloomberg says have already been cut.

Russia is being paid more for its oil, and Indian refiners are paying more again. On September’s numbers the difference between the two prices was a voyage, and the port price was still far below Brent and far above the cap.