Washington has frozen more than an arms sale to Taiwan

US arms package for Taiwan on hold About $14bn, since May 29 September 2026. AP, via FortuneOn 29 September Taiwan’s defence minister, Wellington Koo, said Taipei had not “received any notice of any changes to sales or our cooperation” from Washington. In May President Trump said he was holding a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan “in abeyance”, and two other channels of US support have stalled with it. The freeze is wider than one weapons sale, and Trump has said why.

What happened

Trump met Xi Jinping in Beijing in May. China pressed him to halt the arms sales, and the package was paused after the summit, the Associated Press reported. In a Fox News interview that aired as the visit ended, Trump called the weapons “a very good negotiating chip for us, frankly,” and said: “I’m holding that in abeyance and it depends on China.”

A few days later the Financial Times reported that Beijing was holding up a planned summer visit by Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s under secretary for policy, and had signalled “that it cannot approve a visit until Trump decides how to proceed with the arms package.” Reuters could not immediately verify the report.

The US Navy has also all but stopped announcing its passages through the Strait. A Heritage Foundation study published in Breaking Defense counted three publicly declared transits since Trump’s second term began in January 2025, against 28 in his first term and 32 under Biden. At that rate, it projects 14 for the whole term. The count is built from US and foreign government statements, Navy press releases, news reports and databases such as the Taiwan Security Monitor, so it measures what Washington chooses to make public. On our reading, that choice is itself the signal.

Xi visited Washington in late September, and Chinese state media reported that he urged Trump to oppose Taiwanese independence. On 23 September four Republican senators wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth about more than $15 billion in stalled support: $300 million in foreign military financing the State Department had not moved ahead with, $1 billion the Pentagon had failed to obligate, and the $14 billion sale. Seven House members from both parties wrote separately to Trump, urging him not to consult China on arms sales.

The numbers

The freeze can be counted in three places. There is the $14 billion package, on hold since May. There are the publicly reported Navy transits, three in twenty months against a first-term pace of seven a year. And there are the funds the senators’ letter lists, $1.3 billion before the arms sale is counted. Meanwhile, Koo said, the 66 F-16V fighters Taiwan ordered have reached the stage where they are ready to be delivered. They were due in 2024, according to local media cited by the AP, and slipped because of the pandemic and problems on the production line. Their delivery would be the first test of whether anything in the pipeline still moves.

TAIEX intraday record 48,601.53 22 September 2026. Focus Taiwan (CNA)Foreign institutional net buying, that day NT$44.73bn 22 September 2026. Focus Taiwan (CNA)The market has not counted any of it. On 22 September the TAIEX reached an intraday record of 48,601.53, above the previous high of 48,218.87 set on 23 June, and closed at 47,800.17. Foreign institutional investors were net buyers of NT$44.73 billion of shares on the main board that day.

Transmission

Valtor’s inference Our reading, and it is an inference: three channels moving together, in the same months, after the president tied arms sales to talks with China, look like policy rather than a procurement delay. US support for Taiwan has become part of the bargaining with Beijing, which is what Trump said.

Markets can read that two ways, and a record index is consistent with both. In the first reading the freeze lowers near-term risk: Beijing has what it asked for and less reason to escalate while talks continue. In the second it raises long-term risk, because the commitment Taiwan’s defence planning rests on is now conditional. Foreign net buying on the record day fits the first view, though one day’s flows prove little.

The costs of the second reading fall on people who plan in years. Taiwan’s military budgets around equipment it cannot be sure of receiving. US defence contractors carry a $14 billion order with no date. And insurers and shippers who treat the US commitment as fixed are taking a position on a negotiation that the president has said is open.

What to watch

• A decision on the $14 billion package. Trump said it “depends on China.” Approval would suggest the bargaining has stalled; a cancellation that it has moved further.
• Colby’s visit to Beijing. On the FT’s account China has tied it to the arms decision, so the visit taking place would tell you the decision has been made.
• The next publicly reported US Navy transit of the Strait. Three in twenty months is the baseline.
• Delivery of the first F-16Vs. Koo says they are ready; a further delay with no production reason given would suggest the freeze has spread beyond the package.

Bottom line

Taipei says nothing has changed. Three separate channels of US support say otherwise, and the president has said why: Taiwan has become a chip in the bargaining with Beijing. The TAIEX record suggests markets read that as calming. It stays calming for as long as the bargaining holds.