The LNG shock stops at the US border

Qatari LNG cargoes, first six months of war 18 (509 a year earlier) 29 September 2026. ICIS, via EuronewsQatar exported 18 cargoes of LNG in the first six months of the war, against 509 in the same period a year earlier, according to ICIS. Europe’s gas storage reached its lowest level for the time of year since 2009 in early September, Wood Mackenzie said. In the United States, Henry Hub averaged $2.95 per million British thermal units in September, two cents less than a year before. The LNG shock is real everywhere except at the source now filling the gap.

What happened

Iranian strikes took two of Qatar’s 14 export trains offline, 17% of its LNG capacity, and QatarEnergy has said repairs will take three to five years. It has extended force majeure on deliveries to Asia and Europe through the end of November, and for Italy’s Edison to early December. Reuters calculated Qatar’s lost sales over the first six months of the war at $24 billion.

Shell’s Cederic Cremers said in September that some 36 million tonnes of Qatari and Emirati supply had been missing from the market so far this year compared with 2025. Even if Hormuz reopens, he said, “I don’t think you would immediately go back to the type of flows that we saw before the war started.”

The few Qatari cargoes that do get out go east. Euronews reported Qatari cargoes delivered to India and Pakistan in late September, and one leaving Hormuz for China.

The replacement for everyone else is coming from the United States. Edison has missed 35 Qatari cargoes since April and replaced 23 of them, mainly with US gas, Euronews reported.

The numbers

US LNG exports, first half 17.4 Bcf/d, +23% y/y 30 June 2026. EIAUS LNG exports averaged 17.4 billion cubic feet a day in the first half of 2026, 23% more than a year earlier, the EIA reports. New capacity drove it, at “the fastest rate since the United States began large-scale exports in 2016”: Plaquemines running at full capacity, six of seven trains operating at Corpus Christi Stage 3, and Golden Pass, which began exporting in April.

Henry Hub spot, September average $2.95/MMBtu ($2.97 in Sept 2025) 30 September 2026. EIA daily spot via FRED (DHHNGSP), Valtor averageDutch TTF front-month, September average More than EUR 75/MWh (EUR 33 in February) 30 September 2026. John KempNone of that shows up in the US price. Henry Hub spot averaged $2.95 in September on the EIA’s daily data, against $2.97 in September 2025. Front-month TTF futures in Europe averaged more than EUR 75 per megawatt hour in September, up from EUR 33 in February, John Kemp calculates. At September’s exchange rate that is about $25 per million British thermal units, more than eight times Henry Hub.

EU gas storage 70.89% full 26 September 2026. GIE AGSI+Europe’s buffer is thin. EU storage stood at 70.89% on 26 September in GIE’s AGSI+ data, roughly 16 points below the 2021-2025 average for that day. Wood Mackenzie said in early September that storage was at its lowest for the time of year since 2009, and forecasts 21% by the end of winter.

Transmission

US export terminals were already running “near maximum output levels” in the first half, the EIA says. Demand abroad cannot pull more gas out of the country than the terminals can liquefy. On our reading, that is why the shortage raises prices in Europe and Asia and leaves Henry Hub where domestic supply puts it.

Valtor’s inference Our reading, and it is an inference about how the contracts work rather than a sourced figure: the gap between $3 gas in the United States and $25 gas in Europe accrues to whoever holds US cargoes free to go to the highest bidder. Many US offtake contracts are priced on Henry Hub plus a fixed liquefaction fee, so a holder of flexible cargoes keeps most of the spread. Qatar carries the lost volume, and its long-term customers carry the force majeure.

The costs land on balance sheets that look nothing like the winners’. Qatar has lost $24 billion in sales. Edison has had to buy replacements for two-thirds of what Qatar did not deliver. Europe’s storage gap has to be closed in the same spot market, at the same prices, before the coldest months.

Nobody else has slack to offer. A report by the International Energy Forum and Japan’s Jogmec, cited by The National, found that in 2025 the world’s spare liquefaction capacity fell about 14 billion cubic metres (about 10 million tonnes) short of the LNG moving through Hormuz, the first time in nearly a decade that spare capacity could not cover it. Even US supply is capped by what is already built. One of the next increments is Golden Pass’s second train, which the EIA expects in late 2026.

What to watch

• QatarEnergy’s force majeure. It now runs to the end of November for most buyers. Another extension would keep Qatari volumes out for most of the winter.
• EU storage against Wood Mackenzie’s 21% end-of-winter forecast. A cold December would test that number early.
• Golden Pass Train 2, which the EIA expects in late 2026.

Bottom line

The war took Qatar’s LNG off the market and the United States put its own in. Henry Hub is where it was a year ago, Qatar has lost $24 billion, and Europe is short going into winter. The spread between those facts is paid in Europe and Asia and collected by whoever holds flexible American cargoes.